How Egypt has become a powerless regional entity: Geopolitical

Domestic political and economic problems have constrained Egypt’s influence over other Arab states

After long being the center of the Arab cultural and political world, Egypt’s power and influence has declined in recent decades. Since the 2011 Arab Spring uprising, which was led by the urban middle class, the country’s regional status has taken a major hit. Furthermore, domestic political and economic issues now constrain Egypt’s once-dominant position. Cairo is no longer able to fend for its own political economy – a situation that is unlikely to be reversed in the foreseeable future, according to Geopolitical Futures.

Geopolitical Futures has recently published a report titled, “Egypt as a regional non-power”. The report said that Egypt’s influence and power has significantly declined in recent decades, after it has long been a leading cultural and political center for the Arab world.

How Egypt has become a regional entity without power

The report that monitored the reasons of the declining position of Egypt regionally and globally, said that since the revolution of January 2011, Egypt’s status in the region has received a strong blow and the domestic, political, and economic issues have imposed restrictions on Egypt which was previously a leading Arab country. However, the report ruled out that Egypt could recover in the foreseeable future.

Al-Sisi’s self-threatening regime

Regarding the internal situation, the report said that the government does not face any challenges from the Egyptian opposition, but in fact the regime is self-threatening. While the former authoritarian regime in the era of Hosni Mubarak was able to reduce the economic problems, the current regime under Al-Sisi is no longer able to control the problems of the country, the report said.

Although Egypt may not collapse economically, it is also unlikely to be able to improve the domestic economy, let alone to be able to extend its influence beyond its borders, according to the report.

Egypt has quit the powerful square which includes Saudi Arabia, Iran, Turkey and Israel, even though it was the intellectual and cultural heart of the Arab world, or that it has got the largest Arab army as well as the largest population. According to the report, Egypt’s collapse began in the eighties of the twentieth century, where it started to lose its ability to remake the Middle East, due to a number of local security and economic issues.

Difficult situation

The report also said that the climate of the post-Arab Spring is more volatile than it was during the bread uprising (in 1979). However, the regime, which found itself in an extremely difficult situation, had no other way but to ensure the financing of the International Monetary Fund to prevent further deterioration in the economic situation. Also, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states are no longer able to help Egypt because of the erosion of oil prices on the one hand and rising domestic and foreign expenditures because of the mess that hit the region on the other.

Al-Sisi may become the regime’s scapegoat

According to the report, if economic conditions worsened and reached an unbearable level of deterioration and people took to the streets, Al-Sisi will become the scapegoat of the regime, and the generals will be forced again to oust “the president” and allow another round of democratic elections in order to overcome the economic storm.